What if Trump wins?
by Dave Winer Saturday, September 17, 2016

It's time to start reporting this story in earnest.

Some questions off the top of my head.

Presumably the Repubs will also win the Senate. Right away they will ratify a new Scalia, restoring the previous ratio on the Court.

ObamaCare will be repealed by Congress and the President will sign the bill. How many people will lose their insurance? What happens to people who are dependent on health care? WIll we revert to a system with pre-existing conditions? If so, will they revert to when you let the previous insurance lapse? Will people who switched to ObamaCare be able to restore the policies they let lapse?

Did he make a deal with Priebus, will Trump actually govern or will he be a figurehead. There were rumors that he offered president-in-fact to Kasich. Did he offer the same deal to Pence?

Or will there be a purge? Will Ryan and McConnell be forced out? It seems the majorities in Congress will be managed by people loyal to the president.

What will happen to the stock market? When will it start reflecting the likelihood of a Trump presidency? Seems likely (to me) it'll crash. Should we be looking for signs of that now?

Foreign alliances. What will change immediately, and what will change over time. What will Russia do in the confusion after the election? 

How should/will Obama prepare for the transition? What steps might he take before Trump takes office?

Nate Silver said it's time for the Democrats to panic if the poll numbers stay the same. When will everyone else panic.

The banking industry. Trump has promised to repeal Dodd-Frank. Is it actually working, doing any good? If so, what will change immediately? Will we return to subprime loans? Or have we already resumed that?

What will the 11 million people who he has threatened to deport do?

I'm sure other questions will occur. The press hasn't asked these questions presumably because they thought Trump would not win. If they're going to do their jobs it seems they have to start shifting now. We have to have some info/ideas about this. News is getting real.

Update: The New Yorker has been working on this story all summer, and it just came out with this. I've only started to read it. Very powerful stuff.