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Is Microsoft dead? Feh.

Saturday, April 07, 2007 by Dave Winer.

Paul Graham posits that Microsoft is dead and the cause of death is:  Permalink to this paragraph

1. Murder by Google. Permalink to this paragraph

2. Oh who cares, it's all bullshit.  Permalink to this paragraph

In fact, Microsoft is not dead, because (come on get real) it's a company, and companies aren't living, and they don't die.  Permalink to this paragraph

In 1983 I wanted to develop for the Mac and I had investors advising me, older guys who had been in the tech business probably about as long as I've been in it now. Everyone said that Apple was dead. They asked what Apple's sales were. About a billion dollars. They said it was safe to develop for them, because billion dollar companies don't go away. Same with Microsoft today. Permalink to this paragraph

What's happening with MS is not death, but being pulled back to earth by gravity. It's the cycle of tech companies, and it's like the cycle of world powers. You have a vast natural resource to exploit, your population grows, the air gets clogged, the resource starts to run out and you're left with a large population. You go from optimism and huge growth to reality and flat, even negative growth. It's completely natural and predictable. It's going to happen to Google too, bet on it. Permalink to this paragraph

BTW, Microsoft's natural resource was people who don't have personal computers. And that's what they're running out of now. So they have to sell people their fifth and sixth PC. They will. And they will suck. Like everything else does. And Microsoft will be a mediocre huge company, again like every other huge company.  Permalink to this paragraph

Sorry, Graham has no clue about the cycles of technology. You never should fear the incumbent, any more than you fear the IRS. Keep your distance, unless you're trying to be the next one, in which case good luck to you.  Permalink to this paragraph

Emailing with Ole Eichorn about this (I think he used to work at Intuit) -- he wonders if MS has become irrelevant. I volunteer that of course they are irrelevant. It's been going on for a long time. My diatribe continues. Permalink to this paragraph

Geez, it's as if he (Graham) discovered something new! Permalink to this paragraph

I would say MS jumped the shark right around the time of "write once run anywhere." Permalink to this paragraph

They fought that. Oooops. Mistake. Permalink to this paragraph

They also tried to bury the web to protect Office. Permalink to this paragraph

Instead the web just routed around them. Permalink to this paragraph

Google took advantage. For a while. Permalink to this paragraph

BIG FUCKING DEAL. Permalink to this paragraph

PS: I could use some help with Apache htaccess files. ;-> Permalink to this paragraph

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Last update: 4/26/2007; 12:45:05 PM Pacific. "It's even worse than it appears."

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