DaveNet: Friday, October 31, 1997; by Dave Winer.

Amy Wohl on the Next Microsoft

From Amy Wohl, amy@home.cynet.net:

Dave, I have a love/hate relationship with your article.

From a short-term practical point of view, you're absolutely right. It's easier to be successful by building into the niches Microsoft is willing to leave for partners, but it's very limiting. Of course, the limit could leave room for a few billion dollar companies, but it doesn't leave room for real innovation or market control.

That, in the long run, isn't interesting. Bill's entitled to be in control for as long as he runs the best game in town. Maybe that will be forever and for everything (or nearly everything), but I doubt it. Economic history says this is highly unlikely.

If companies can't try to do things that are directly confrontational with Microsoft that nothing truly new can happen unless Bill thinks it up. I don't like that limit. It's a much riskier approach, but like all risky things, it offers a seductively higher award.

Lotus will slap a few highly confrontational cards on the table on Monday with its Kona announcement, its strategy, and its partners. Such confrontations and their not-at-all inevitable outcomes are why this industry is so much fun to be in.

Don't get me wrong. It's okay to partner with Microsoft -- and it's a lot safer, but you can't try to be the next Microsoft that way.