Asking Nate Silver about the Senate
Monday, February 15, 2016 by Dave Winer

Yes, these are interesting times. Let's hope it all stays political and doesn't break out into actual warfare.

In the meantime, assuming there will be no new Supreme Court members this year, the question turns to what about next year.

I wanted to know the chances of the Senate switching to Democratic control in the November election, so I asked the person best able to answer such a question -- Nate Silver. I got an answer:

"I'd say Democrats have somewhere on the order of a 35-40% chance of picking up the Senate."

That's the power of the Internet. And it begs the obvious next question. What can we do to increase those odds? Which races look most promising for a switch? Which campaigns should we give money to?

PS: This suggests that Democratic donors should give to the Republican presidential candidate most likely to cause a landslide in favor of the Democratic candidate. Probably Ted Cruz, imho.