Thursday, September 4, 2014 at 8:09 AM

How popular will Facebook's API be?

Back when we started podcasting, Doc Searls or Rex Hammock, or maybe both of them, looked up the word on Google, and made note of the number of hits, thinking that someday there would be millions. Sometimes you get a feeling something is going to be big. Podcasting was of course one of those things.

Here's a question like that for you to think about.

Two years from now, what percentage of the posts on Facebook will come through the API vs being entered directly in the Facebook app or through the website?

It'll be a function of two things: 1. How much functionality shows through the Facebook API. 2. How much interest there is among developers.

Without #1 there won't be much #2. I know some pundits think developers won't trust Facebook (I've heard them say this privately). I think developers are fools for fresh new territory to explore, even if they are vulnerable when they do it. Trust doesn't really enter into it. We'll "trust" Facebook because the idea is so juicy. Developers are on a perpetual trail of tears. But sometimes we do get to have some fun.

Anyway I think the number will be large. I think the Facebook people are very excited about what can happen with more power showing through the API. And the API is already quite good and easy to understand, and works wonderfully with browser-based JavaScript apps, as well as or better than Dropbox.

So I'm going to say: 40% after two years, with the line pointing upward toward 80% in five. And part of me thinks that's conservative.

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By Dave Winer, Thursday, September 4, 2014 at 8:09 AM. Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends.