It's even worse than it appears.
Tuesday April 21, 2020; 3:17 PM EDT
  • The way we're going to fight the virus is like levels in video games. You don't get to move on to the next level until you've mastered the previous. And when you fall down, you go back to the beginning. #
  • This narrative comes from listening to expert explainers on MSNBC last night, mainly Laurie Garrett and Donald McNeil, who was also yesterday's guest on the the Daily podcast. #
    • First, establish strategic testing. Do statistical sampling to form virus outbreak "weather reports," like tracking tornados. #
    • If you are in an area where there aren't active outbreaks, you can do a covid-aware resumption of business. Strict limits on size and density of gatherings, so new outbreaks, which will happen, are limited. Makes contact tracing possible. #
    • Where there are outbreaks, do intense contact tracing. Full lockdown except for essential services. Locate people who are infected, and isolate with other spreaders, not with their families. Until the outbreak subsides, then go to 2. #
  • The testing is never of the whole population, always sampled, and to support contact tracing. Testing forms the basis for the weather reports. #
  • We are going to get very good at all this. #
  • I'm sure Nate Silver can explain better and in more detail. This is similar to what they do at 538 to predict election outcomes. It's also similar to what they do with TV program ratings for advertising, and gathering meteorological data to support weather forecasts. #

© 1994-2020 Dave Winer.

Last update: Tuesday April 21, 2020; 6:40 PM EDT.

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