The way we're going to fight the virus is like levels in video games. You don't get to move on to the next level until you've mastered the previous. And when you fall down, you go back to the beginning. #
This narrative comes from listening to expert explainers on MSNBC last night, mainly Laurie Garrett and Donald McNeil, who was also yesterday's guest on the the Daily podcast. #
First, establish strategic testing. Do statistical sampling to form virus outbreak "weather reports," like tracking tornados. #
If you are in an area where there aren't active outbreaks, you can do a covid-aware resumption of business. Strict limits on size and density of gatherings, so new outbreaks, which will happen, are limited. Makes contact tracing possible. #
Where there are outbreaks, do intense contact tracing. Full lockdown except for essential services. Locate people who are infected, and isolate with other spreaders, not with their families. Until the outbreak subsides, then go to 2. #
The testing is never of the whole population, always sampled, and to support contact tracing. Testing forms the basis for the weather reports. #
I'm sure Nate Silver can explain better and in more detail. This is similar to what they do at 538 to predict election outcomes. It's also similar to what they do with TV program ratings for advertising, and gathering meteorological data to support weather forecasts. #
You know those obnoxious sites that pop up dialogs when they think you're about to leave, asking you to subscribe to their email newsletter? Well that won't do for Scripting News readers who are a discerning lot, very loyal, but that wouldn't last long if I did rude stuff like that. So here I am at the bottom of the page quietly encouraging you to sign up for the nightly email. It's got everything from the previous day on Scripting, plus the contents of the linkblog and who knows what else we'll get in there. People really love it. I wish I had done it sooner. And every email has an unsub link so if you want to get out, you can, easily -- no questions asked, and no follow-ups. Go ahead and do it, you won't be sorry! :-)