It's even worse than it appears.
Friday May 22, 2020; 8:55 AM EDT
  • My longtime friend Matt Ocko says it's hot in Brazil and they have a lot of virus there, so the virus must do okay in heat, so therefore no reprieve during the summer in the US. #
  • I don't know whether the virus does better or worse in summer months, but saying it's doing fine in Brazil doesn't add much data about how it will do in the US in the summer. #
  • Maybe the virus doesn't care about the heat, but humans behave differently when it's warm. We spend more time outdoors, and the virus isn't as infectious outdoors, because it's the virus load that determines how infectious it is. At least that's what we currently think.#
  • Human bodies are generally in better shape in the summer. That might make us better able to fight the virus. #
  • Brazil is a different place from the US and is responding socially to the virus differently, so it's hard to conclude anything about what happens in the US based on what happens in Brazil. #
  • And of course the US is a very varied country, so what happens in NYC is different from what happens in Calif, is different from other parts of New York State for that matter. #

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Last update: Tuesday May 26, 2020; 4:21 PM EDT.

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